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Berkeley Group Holdings PLC and Hammerson PLC … there’s property and then


As well as updates from Berkeley and Hammerson, there will be UK GDP – sure to have been hit by lockdown restrictions – and the first post-Brexit trade figures.

The housing market is still going like … well, a house on fire, whereas the retail property market is in no need of a fire extinguisher.

All of which is relevant to Friday’s headline acts in the corporate calendar, Holdings PLC () and PLC ().

London and South-East focused housebuilder Berkeley usually updates its guidance for profit for its full-year to end-April in its trading update at this stage.

Analysts at UBS said they expect profit before tax of £538mln, versus December’s guidance of around £500mln, and net cash to be around £900mln by year-end.

“We expect trading to be broadly stable to positive in Q3, reflecting somewhat more subdued trends in London vs the rest of the country. We do not expect a change to multi-year guidance at this stage.”

As for , the financials should highlight the severe headwinds in the retail sector, as well as the impact of the dilutive rights issue in the summer.

Broker Peel Hunt forecast a year-end loan-to-value (LTV) of 46%, and with ongoing valuation declines expected over the coming years, sees LTV rising further without disposals.

“This will be crucial to the future prospects of the company in our view, and we look for an update on the new management team’s intentions.”

On the macro front, the UK gross domestic product release for January is due with Daiwa Capital markets predicting a 4.5% month-on-month fall after December’s 1.2% increase and a 2.2% year-on-year decline.

“Once again, services activity will be hardest hit while industrial production is expected to have fallen more modestly (perhaps less than 0.5%M/M, albeit likely leaving it down more than 3.5%Y/Y),” Daiwa said.

The first post-Brexit trade balance might attract a few headlines. Here, Daiwa is going for a negative trade balance in January of £12.5bn versus a deficit of £14.3bn in December.

“The new barriers to trade with the EU that came into place at the start of the year will have weighed on exports of both goods and services. Indeed, as the French and Italian data have so far suggested, the UK trade deficit is likely to widen in January as the fall in exports outpaced that of imports,” the broker said.

Significant announcements expected

Trading statement: Holdings PLC ()

Finals: Hammerson (), Ocean Wilsons Holdings PLC ()

AGMs/EGMs: Autins Group (), Petroneft ()

Economic announcements: UK GDP, UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output, UK trade data, US PPI



Read More: Berkeley Group Holdings PLC and Hammerson PLC … there’s property and then

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